Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
